By Jennifer Wehner


The recent Arizona real estate numbers brings both positive and bad news for the Scottsdale Real Estate Market. In January, foreclosure sales represented 42% of all properties sold, compared to 30% during the 4th quarter of 2010. The important question is whether this is a temporary response to the bank moratoriums or a continuation of a market saturated by foreclosures. The end of 2010 ended in an unlikely set of circumstances including foreclosure moratoriums, litigation challenging the foreclosure process, and stricter underwriting guidelines.

Foreclosure statistics, as percentage of the total resale market in January 2011, varied throughout the Phoenix metro area such as 52% in El Mirage, 42% in Surprise, 46% in Maryvale, 38% in Chandler and 29% in Scottsdale. Another component of the market was the sale of previously foreclosed property, which accounted for approximately 40% of the traditional transactions in January (4,705 sales). Due to worries about the foreclosure process, foreclosure-related activity represented 66% of the recorded transactions for January 2011, but 63% in 2010. Median prices from January 2010 to January 2011 declined 8% year over year.

Are you ready for some good news?-property sales prices are up this year from last in Phoenix by 7%, 12% in Scottsdale, 16% in Chandler, 7% in Surprise, 14% in Mesa, 26% in Gilbert-and 8% in Phoenix metro area as a whole.

Nathaniel Karp, chief economist for BBVA Compass and one of the few banking industry economists who track the real estate market trends and conditions here, thinks that Arizona's economy is improving at a solid clip. "Arizona's economic recovery is among the fastest in the country," said Karp, speaking to BBVA Compass clients in Phoenix, AZ this week. "And we're seeing a faster recovery compared to a few months ago."

As reported in the Arizona Republic, Karp acknowledged challenges remain for both Arizona and the nation. Arizona's state budget is in particularly bad shape, including unfunded pension liabilities, he said. But he also pointed to relatively strong manufacturing gains and exports, especially in software and and the local technology sector. Other positives include a rise in hours worked for Arizonans with jobs and moderating price declines for some areas of the valley.

Karp predicted Arizona's economy would grow 3.4 percent this year alone, which is better than his projected 3 percent expansion for the USA On the American economy as a whole, Karp sees continuing mild inflation and moderately rising interest rates, despite sharper price increases for oil and various other commodities. He doesn't see the commercial real estate market reaching the bottom until summer, but said confidence among many business leaders had risen after Congress extended income-tax laws and shown signs of greater clarity in regulation.

Some interesting news for the valley's economy, Intel has announced its plans for a new five billion dollar megaplex in Chandler. The project will bring several thousand construction and factory jobs when construction begins this summer, officials said. It also will produce more of the increased wage, higher-skill positions needed in a state still rebounding from a significant loss of jobs incurred in the recession. When the Intel facility opens in 2013, about 1,000 people will be needed to run an operation that Intel executives predict it will be the most technologically advanced high-volume semiconductor-manufacturing facility on the planet.

This Intel project comes after a multibillion-dollar investment the company announced in October to improve its existing two fabrication facilities, or fabs, in Chandler. The new facility will be called Fab 42. The project will provide many short- and long-term benefits. The Greater Phoenix Economic Council estimates that Fab 42 will create 14,000 temporary jobs, including spinoff jobs created by construction activity. The project also will help improve the state's economy and job base.

In closing, there is no doubt that volatility still exists in the Pheonix AZ housing market. There are also some encouraging indicators and factors in both the Arizona economy and housing market. It is very important to stay current on what is happening in the current market, and I will continue to evaluate the market and important local and national news that affect us here in the Phoenix valley. Arizona Realtor Jen Wehner can be reached toll free at 877-293-3259 with any questions on the AZ home market.




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